[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
06N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N17W TO 01N34W TO 02N46W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 19W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE SE CONUS. A 1008 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N90W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
ALONG 26N89W TO 18N93W THEN INLAND OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS ANALYZED FROM 29N86W TO
24N89W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 82W-88W. A
FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 22N88W. WHILE THE COLD FRONT HAS
INTRODUCED N-NW WINDS OVER THE SW GULF...THE MAJORITY OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS FRONT REMAIN GENERALLY N OF 27N AS
WEST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE GULF ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL THEN BE ON THE DOOR STEP OF THE NW GULF WATERS FORECAST TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC
NEAR 09N56W NW TO OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED N OF
10N AND IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 21N71W
TO 15N72W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 16N
BETWEEN 68W-79W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS FOUND OVER
THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 61W-71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W TO BEYOND
32N77W. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 28N74W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NE
OF THIS RIDGE INTRODUCES A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N60W TO 31N67W TO 32N75W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES NE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLC REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATING AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 40W UNDER MOSTLY
FAIR CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE...THESE FAIR CONDITIONS ARE
REINFORCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST-WEST ALONG
27N/28N BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED 1019 MB HIGH NE OF THE
BAHAMAS AND A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N48W. BETWEEN THE TWO
HIGHS HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM
25N-30N BETWEEN 51W-55W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
LOCATED ALONG 38W AND SUPPORTS A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED
NEAR 33N38W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE LOW
CENTER ALONG 26N38W TO 16N43W. MOST OF THE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-32N
BETWEEN 30W-36W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH...PRIMARILY DENOTING A WIND
SHIFT...ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N18W TO
NEAR 20N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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