[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
04N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N14W TO 02N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 19W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE
GULF THIS MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE BASIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND DRIVE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT INTO THE NW GULF LATE MONDAY. UNTIL THEN HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 32N77W TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N98W.
THIS RIDGE IS HOLDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOSTLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND SE TEXAS THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW IS NOTED ON SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS NORTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...AS WINDS REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NW GULF WATERS NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM 23N98W TO 30N88W...INCLUDING MUCH OF INTERIOR TEXAS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TODAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND
INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT AND STRONG N-NW WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN
THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND LACK ANY DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE
OF 15 TO 20 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 85W...ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
AND OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 59W-68W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH IS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 31N THAT
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE W ATLC WEST OF 48W. THE RIDGE
IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N51W AND A 1024 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N77W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 21N62W TO 28N59W. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO HISPANIOLA AND IS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 27N55W TO 19N72W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N40W AND SUPPORTS A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW
COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N39W TO 15N43W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES
NEAR 38N27W SOUTHWARD TO 19N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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