[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 5N13W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N13W TO 2N23W AND 1N38W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN THE AREA OF THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.
THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CURRENT STATIONARY
FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS TEXAS FROM EAST TO WEST. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 12N74W IN COLOMBIA COASTAL
WATERS...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO ITS BORDER WITH PANAMA
AND TOWARD 6N80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS DISCERNIBLE ONLY BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TRINIDAD FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 09/1200 UTC IS 0.54 OF AN INCH. BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 58W AND
62W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF VENEZUELA...
AND POSSIBLY IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND INLAND OF EASTERN
VENEZUELA AND IN TRINIDAD. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF OF
23N63W 21N68W 18N76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS BETWEEN 20W AND 44W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N40W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 19N29W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE 31N40W 19N29W TROUGH
AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 60W/61W
FROM 23N TO 29N. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM 24N TO 29N
BETWEEN 56W AND 61W. THE 31N40W 19N29W TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1016 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N40W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES
BEYOND 32N FROM THE LOW CENTER. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE 1016 MB LOW CENTER TO 29N40W AND 28N45W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N38W 26N37W AND 22N40W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N32W TO 34N36W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 16N18W 24N17W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 30N16W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N50W TO 31N65W...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N76W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net