[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
07N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N19W TO 03N25W TO 03N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 21W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF THIS
EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE BASIN OVER NW MEXICO AND EXTREME
WESTERN TEXAS. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E-SE
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND DRIVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE
NW GULF LATE MONDAY. UNTIL THEN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE REGION WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
31N79W TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. THIS RIDGE IS HOLDING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND SE
TEXAS THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS NOTED ON SHIP AND
BUOY OBSERVATIONS NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AS WINDS REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE. WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE
NW GULF WATERS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 23N98W TO 30N93W. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES BY EARLY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
AND INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT AND STRONG N-NW WINDS TO THE WESTERN
GULF THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN
THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND LACK ANY
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH E-NE TRADES IN
THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 84W...
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 59W-67W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH IS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 30N THAT CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE W ATLC WEST OF 46W. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N52W AND A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N79W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING IS NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG 60W THAT STRETCHES SW FROM 25N60W TO
HISPANIOLA. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A LINE FROM 25N60W
TO 19N71W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 32N40W AND SUPPORTS A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW
COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG 29N39W TO 24N44W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING GENERALLY EAST OF THE BOUNDARY FROM
24N-32N BETWEEN 30W-40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF
THE FRONT FROM 16N-23N ALONG 41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 32W-42W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE AZORES NEAR 38N27W SOUTHWARD TO 23N31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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