[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071705
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 5N17W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO 2N30W TO 2N40W TO BRAZIL NEAR
1N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR 27N81W. 10-15 KT SE-S WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 83W-85W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN
88W-95W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING
THE SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF AND FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 20N60W TO PUERTO RICO AT 18N66W TO HISPANIOLA AT 18N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N E OF 74W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA.
ELSEWHERE ...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
10N-17N N BETWEEN 78W-88W MAINLY DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. FURTHER MORE...PATCHES OF BROKEN TO LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N
AND E OF 70W TO INCLUDE THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
AXIS ALONG 70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND SHOWERS
OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...TOGETHER WITH THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N62W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N44W TO 23N53W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 20N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N BETWEEN 38W-45W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITH 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N20W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS AND MOROCCO. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC
FRONT TO MOVE E TO 30N39W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net