[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 6N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N15W ALONG
3N30W 4N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE W
ATLC DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING PROVIDING LIGHT
ANT-CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. DRY AIR ALOFT IN
WSWLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE NRN GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-93W WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS FROM 30N93W TO 26N95W. A PATCH OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
ALSO IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 87W-90W. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER TEXAS WHICH MAY BEGIN IMPACTING
THE NW GULF. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT
WILL STALL ALONG THE COASTLINE BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS THE BASIN
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF WITH LIKELY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NW AND ERN CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MOISTURE...REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CONTINUES TO LIE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FROM PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA ACROSS WRN CUBA TO
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. THIS IS HELPING SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THIS AREA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NELY SURFACE FLOW WITH
AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF HONDURAS AS WELL AS INLAND OVER
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. A SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO OVER
THIS AREA EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS SUPPORTING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH MODERATE SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N61W DOMINATES THE
WRN ATLC PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC WITH
AXIS ALONG 58W. FARTHER E...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
42W SUPPORTING A 1014 MB LOW JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
34N44W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N44W
20N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY E OF THE AXIS UNDER THE
AREA OF STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT N OF 24N BETWEEN 39W-43W. TO
THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF SOUTH AMERICA AND SE OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 12N54W TO 7N58W. THE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 43W-61W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1036 MB
HIGH NEAR 45N18W WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE
IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 34W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE AZORES ISLANDS AND THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 32N22W. THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING SOME UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER W AFRICA AS WELL AS NEAR THE LOW CENTER.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON







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