[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 5N16W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 2N25W TO 1N40W TO BRAZIL NEAR
1N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 15W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N67W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND CONTINUES TO LOUISIANA. 10 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER MOST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE NE GULF FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 84W-92W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER
THE NE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE
RETURN FLOW WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FROM 20N60W TO 18N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N E OF 72W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE
...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N BETWEEN
80W-88W MAINLY DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING W WITH THE
TRADEWINDS. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N AND E OF 70W TO
INCLUDE THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO...TOGETHER WITH THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
W OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N67W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N48W TO 24N53W TO
20N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N
BETWEEN 40W-48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITH 30 NM OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 40W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N20W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH
IS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND MOROCCO.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E TO 30N40W
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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