[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N13W
TO 9N16W AND 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N17W TO 5N20W
2N30W AND 1N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 23W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 85W/86W IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE
TEXAS GULF COAST WHERE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER...ALONG THE REST OF THE
TEXAS GULF COAST SOUTHWESTWARD...THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF TEXAS...TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 25N98W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH CUBA NEAR 23N81W
AND IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W...
TO 22N89W. THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS PART OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29.5N95W...WITH
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 26N98W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
90W AND THE COLD FRONT...AS PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW POURS INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS WIND FLOW IS THE RESULT
OF THE 85W/86W GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA...IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN IT
BECOMES WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE AREA ROUGHLY
TO THE NORTH OF 17N/18N ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...THROUGH 8N81W...AND BEYOND 8N85W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W...AND ALONG
THE COLOMBIA COAST WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5.5N77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM 10.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N IN THAT AREA.
THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 13 FEET...AND THEY
WILL BE COMPARATIVELY THE HIGHEST IN THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N.
EXPECT 20 KNOT OR LESS WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W.
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT IS NOT EVIDENT TO THE NORTH OF 32N.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N66W AND 25N73W.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 25N73W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 47W AND 61W. THE 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION
TOTAL...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...FOR THE TIME PERIOD
THAT ENDED AT 28/1200 UTC FOR BERMUDA...WAS 0.42 OF AN INCH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 23N58W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N40W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N37W TO THE CYCLONIC
CENTER...TO 22N41W 17N42W AND 12N44W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 28N40W. THE FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 28N40W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 25N42W. A WARM FRONT STARTS NEAR 28N40W...AND IT CURVES
TO 27N38W AND 23N39W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N39W TO 20N41W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 22N TO 30N
BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 30N30W 22N31W AND 17N35W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...THE COMPLEX WINDS AND SEAS THAT ARE NEAR THE
31N35W TO 25N42W COLD FRONT...THE 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE WITH THE 31N60W 25N73W
23.5N88W COLD FRONT...AND THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 77W OF 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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