[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N27W
4N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 21W-32W
AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
TO THE DESERT SW INTO NW MEXICO FURTHER AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE
SURFACE IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR LAKE
CHARLES LOUISIANA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO A 1008 MB LOW JUST E
OF CORPUS CHRISTI CONTINUING S TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 89W. REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER THE SE GULF IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N E OF 87W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
HIGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATER THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS THIS
MORNING REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY EARLY
TONIGHT FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE BY
EARLY SAT AFTERNOON AND TO OUT OF THE GULF BY SAT NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT INTO SUN
THEN SHIFT E TO THE ATLC MON ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR W GULF BY LATE MON. THIS FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 68W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN
SANTA CLARA AND COLON INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N W OF 83W TO OVER CUBA AND
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N W OF 81W LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER
THE NW ATLC IS NOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS WEAKENING AND ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N62W ALONG
27N68W TO 25N72W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN SANTA CLARA AND COLON WHERE IT
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND 54W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER LOW IS
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N40W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S INTO
THE TROPICS TO 10N45W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N37W THROUGH A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 28N40W TO 24N44W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 24N38W TO
20N42W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E
OF 35W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
22N38W TO 31N34W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC N OF 15N W OF 25W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND DISSIPATES TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT E THROUGH SAT ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS. THIS
FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR 32N67W TO W CUBA SUN MORNING
THEN FROM NEAR 32N58W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE SUN AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC WHILE WEAKENING TO A SHEARLINE BY MON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND IT THEN MOVE
ESE BY LATE TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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