[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282325
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO
7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N17W TO 4N20W TO 2N30W TO 2N43W
TO THE COAST OF N BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA NEAR
30N92W TO TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED
ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM
26N-28N BETWEEN 81W-85W. 20 KT NW WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 15
KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF N OF 23N.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE NW GULF AND TEXAS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS N OF FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA
FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 76W-86W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 82W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...CONTINUED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
29N72W. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N57W TO
26N68W. A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
24N42W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO A TRIPLE
POINT NEAR 28N39W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THIS POINT TO
26N38W TO 21N40W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO
31N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE WARM SECTOR FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 36W-39W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
27N40W SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF N FLORIDA WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
DRIFT E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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