[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 081453
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR NEARLY 12 HOURS AND...ASSUMING
ROUGHLY AN EXPONENTIAL DECAY RATE AFTER LANDFALL...THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT.  THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...AND ASSUMING THE CENTER IS ABLE TO
MOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE CYCLONE COULD RE-INTENSIFY
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR THE
TRACK TO BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...IN WHICH CASE
THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
OR LESS.

CENTER FIXES USING RADAR DATA FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF
BELIZE AND MEXICO ALONG WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT
ERNESTO IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 260/13.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE ON A MAINLY
WESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS A WESTWARD
TRACK...BUT IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE HWRF...GFDL...AND
GFS MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...
PERHAPS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TOPOGRAPHY OF MEXICO.

BASED ON THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH SHOWS LESS
RESTRENGTHENING...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 18.7N  90.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 18.7N  92.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/1200Z 18.6N  94.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  10/0000Z 18.5N  96.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/1200Z 18.4N  97.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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