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WTNT35 KNHC 081449
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER MEXICO WHILE PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 90.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO
TULUM...CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A HURRICANE WATCH FROM
BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTALA TO TUXPAN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO BARRA DE NAUTLA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY...
EMERGE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...AND BE
NEAR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE
ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER LAND.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY...AND ELSEWHERE IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ.  THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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