[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 081240
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAMPECHE.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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