[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 081731
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
100 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

...ERNESTO HEADED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 90.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO BARRA DE NAUTLA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EMERGE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER
TODAY...AND BE NEAR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE
ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER LAND.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY...AND ELSEWHERE IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ.  THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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