[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
03N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N15W TO 01N20W TO 02N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W THEN TO
01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 11W-15W...AND FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 25W-31W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN
31W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 90W CONTINUES TO EXTEND NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SE
CONUS. THE OVERALL SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS FILTER DOWN TO THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028
MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND EXTENDS
INFLUENCE WESTWARD OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW CONTINUES
TO FUEL DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE LOW AND RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF WILL PERSIST UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX GRADUALLY DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMERGING OFF THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD OFF
THE SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MODERATELY DRY AIR OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THIS IS
RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
20N60W TO 19N62W...THEN AS A SHEAR LINE TO 14N71W. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE
IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 14N E OF 72W. MOISTURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 74W-83W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EAST-NORTHEAST TRADES
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER NE FLOW
BLEEDING THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN
60W-80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 35N55W TO 27N60W STRETCHING SW TO 24N68W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N48W TO 25N53W TO 20N60W AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 24N...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD EASTWARD AS A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N71W IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ADVECTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND AREAS EAST OF 79W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A
RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINATE INFLUENCE ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY
1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 39N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

HUFFMAN




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