[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 3N16W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N16W TO 2N30W AND 1N39W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 7N12W 5N28W 6N44W 11N50W
10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL U.S.A....REACHING THE
FAR WEST OF TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...TO CENTRAL TEXAS...INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 28N102W. THIS IS THE FRONT THAT HAS
PLAYED A ROLE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY...AND STALL THERE MONDAY AND THE FIRST
PART OF TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN 87W/88W RIDGE.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA
ALSO. SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1029 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N70W...TO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA NEAR 31N81W...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND THE AREAS OF SEA HEIGHTS
8 FEET OR HIGHER DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IN THE DIFFERENT
AREAS TO THE WEST OF 90W...AND TO THE EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N53W TO 25N56W...TO 19N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
15N77W...ABOUT 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 20N57W AND 18N60W. THE FRONT STARTS DISSIPATING FROM
18N60W TO 16N65W. A SHEAR AXIS STARTS NEAR 16N65W AND IT
CONTINUES UNTIL 13N71W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 18N60W 16N65W 14N69W 13N75W...AND FROM 14N TO 19N
BETWEEN 73W AND 85W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 UTC FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO WAS
0.37 INCHES...AND IT WAS 0.17 INCHES FOR SAINT THOMAS IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING FROM
8 TO 10 FEET...FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE MONA PASSAGE...
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
WATERS...FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N53W TO 25N56W...TO 19N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
15N77W...ABOUT 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W...TO A 1013 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N70W...TO 28N50W 23N53W
20N57W AND 18N60W. THE FRONT STARTS DISSIPATING FROM 18N60W TO
16N65W. A SHEAR AXIS STARTS NEAR 16N65W AND IT CONTINUES UNTIL
13N71W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 26N49W AND 21N53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N53W 19N57W 18N61W.
PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT AND HIGHER WINDS...AND SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 11 FEET...RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT
IS TO THE WEST OF THE 32N48W 18N60W COLD FRONT. THE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
23N29W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
14N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 17W AND 24W. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
39N26W...THROUGH 32N33W TO 22N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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