[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
03N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W THEN TO 02S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 09W-13W...AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 30W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 91W CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE SE CONUS. THE
OVERALL SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS FILTER DOWN TO THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE
WESTWARD OVER THE BASIN. STRONG EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW CONTINUES
TO FUEL A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER KANSAS...
NEBRASKA...AND IOWA. OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE LOW AND RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF WILL PERSIST UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX GRADUALLY DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMERGING OFF THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. THE FRONTAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN
WEAK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD OFF
THE SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT DUE TO EARLIER EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES FAIRLY DRY AIR OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THIS IS
RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
20N60W TO 17N68W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N E OF 70W.
MOISTURE LINGERS TO THE WEST FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 72W-83W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...EAST-NORTHEAST TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER NE FLOW BLEEDING THROUGH THE
WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN 60W-80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 35N57W TO 30N60W STRETCHING SW TO 25N75W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N50W TO 20N60W AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 24N...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E-SE AS
A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N73W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INLAND
OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST. FARTHER EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN ATLC...A RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINATE INFLUENCE
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

HUFFMAN




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