[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 3N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THIS
POINT ALONG 2N30W 3N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-120 NM N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH E OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA. MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF BROKEN TO LOCALLY
OVERCAST SKIES WITH A FEW LOW-TOP SHOWERS EMBEDDED OVER THE NE
AND SW BASINS. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL...ERN...AND SW BASINS...
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 70W-78W WITH THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP WEAK SHOWERS
ARE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. LIGHTER NE TO E WINDS OF 10 KT WERE
NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE BORDER
OF YUCATAN AND BELIZE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DISSIPATES ALTOGETHER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ANALYZED INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N58W TO 27N70W BECOMING A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF CUBA
NEAR 22N78W. OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 70 NM NW OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30
NM. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO
THE AREA ALONG 32N41W TO 25N46W BECOMING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TO NEAR 21N51W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH NO ACTIVITY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE
AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH CENTERED W
OF PORTUGAL NEAR 42N15W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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