[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W TO
4N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO N BRAZIL ALONG 4N23W 2N40W
EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 14W AND 20W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND 6W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
GAINESVILLE AND GOVERNS THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE GULF N OF 25N
AND GENERALLY NE TO E WINDS OF 10 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF.
CLEAR SKIES PREDOMINATED WITH PATCHES OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE GULF N OF 23N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W AND BROKEN TO
LOCALLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO S OF 22N. A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST
NE OF GALVESTON TEXAS NEAR 30N95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
FLOW IS GENERALLY ZONAL WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
NOTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1456 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED SOME OF THE STRONGER
TRADEWINDS OF 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SAME PASS ALSO INDICATED NE TRADES
OF 20 KT EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO JUST S OF HISPANIOLA. LIGHTER
NE TO E WINDS OF 10 KT WERE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. NE WINDS INCREASED TO 20 KT
OVER THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN TO THE NW OF A DYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE BORDER OF
YUCATAN AND BELIZE. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS DOTTED THE CARIBBEAN MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE DYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS JUST
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS IN AREAS OF
FAVORED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE EXTREME E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 62W/63W
WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA SUPPRESSING ALL DEEP CONVECTION. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DISSIPATES
ALTOGETHER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N58W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM. ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N39W TO 22N49W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60-90 NM W
OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF SPAIN NEAR
43N15W. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED S FROM THE HIGH TO
20N38W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB




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