[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM THIS
POINT ALONG 2N26W 3N39W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70-110 NM N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH E OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA. MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF BROKEN
TO LOCALLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH A FEW LOW-TOP SHOWERS EMBEDDED
OVER THE NE AND SW BASINS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL...ERN...AND SW BASINS...
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 70W-78W WITH THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP WEAK SHOWERS
ARE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. LIGHTER NE TO E WINDS OF 10 KT WERE
NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ANALYZED
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N60W TO 27N68W ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. ONLY OVERCAST
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM. THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE AND STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF PORTUGAL
NEAR 41N15W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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