[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 3N40W 2N51W. THE ITCZ
IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES
ARE BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE COASTS OF N FLORIDA AND S ALABAMA N
OF 29N WITH MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF
WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL
FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. 90-110 KT 25O MB WINDS
PERSIST. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF
25N. EXPECT SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SURFACE CONFLUENCE
TO PRODUCE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA TO E HONDURAS ALONG 20N66W 18N75W 18N80W
16N85W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N
OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF
14N. SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE S OF HISPANIOLA N OF
16N BETWEEN 68W-74W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHERE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. THE
SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N47W TO
HISPANIOLA ALONG 27N52W 22N60W 20N66W MOVING E. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS W OF THE FRONT TO 80W. FURTHER
E...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
26N32W MOVING NE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N15W TO 28N23W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 32N11W TO 27N16W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... SLIGHT RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-45W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E TO NEAR
38W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E OUT OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA





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