[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032307
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 4N20W 4N40W 2N51W. THE ITCZ
IS VOID OF ANY CONVECTION WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR A PATCH OF
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 18W AND
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 40S OVER THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL NLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP
COLDER AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF WITH RED FLAG FIRE
WARNINGS REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND ALABAMA ALONG
WITH FREEZE WARNINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...S GEORGIA... S
ALABAMA...AND SE LOUISIANA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN TO THE NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTING A VAST AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. 12Z RAOBS INDICATED 200 MB WINDS OF 110-140 KT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO SWEEP
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING LATE WED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE NW GULF
WATERS THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPES FROM THE FAR SW ATLC ACROSS NRN
HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...FAR SE CUBA THEN ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN TO THE NRN COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. LOW AND
MID LEVEL OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE S OF 17N
W OF 84 INCLUDING MUCH OF HONDURAS...AS WELL AS OVER HISPANIOLA
N OF 17N BETWEEN 67W-74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL AXIS. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT
OR ITS REMNANTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS
IN HISPANIOLA...SE CUBA AND HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA
WHICH IS PROVIDING VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA S OF 20N...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOTED ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADEWINDS
ARE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHIFTING TO NE WINDS NW
OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO REINFORCE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND MONDAY PUSHING THE FRONT SLIGHTLY
SE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN
OCCLUDED COMPLEX 978 MB LOW JUST OFF THE NE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W CONTINUING SW ALONG
23N60W TO 20N66W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO NRN
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 180-210 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60-75 EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE 978 MB STORM CENTER IS
SUPPORTING A VAST AREA OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS TO 30 KT N OF
29N W OF THE FRONT TO 75W. A DEEP LAYER POLAR VORTEX AND TROUGH
CENTERED OFF THE NE UNITED STATES COAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
IS PROVIDING AMPLE SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A 1021 MB
HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 26N33W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT
NOTED ABOVE AND A SECOND...BUT MUCH WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE E ATLC. THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS PORTUGAL
TO THE CANARY ISLANDS CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 20N30W...WHERE IT
BECOMES A DYING STATIONARY FRONT TO 18N47W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN THE
DISCUSSION AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING THROUGH THE
FRONT...ITS DISSIPATION IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS
SW THROUGH 20N28W TO 15N35W PROVIDES THE ONLY SUPPORT FOR THE
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
COBB


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