[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 3N40W 2N50W. THE
ITCZ IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT N TO NE WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES
ARE BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE COASTS OF N FLORIDA AND S ALABAMA N
OF 28N WITH ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
A BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM
23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. 90-110 KT 25O MB WINDS PERSIST. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N. EXPECT
SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SURFACE CONFLUENCE TO PRODUCE
RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO N OF JAMAICA TO E
HONDURAS ALONG 20N74W 18N82W 15N84W. THE FRONT HAS RETROGRADED
SLIGHTLY N OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 14N...OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N AND W OF 82W...AND OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 68W-82W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY
FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING ALL
DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS N OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N45W TO 26N50W.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG
22N60W 21N70W 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONTS. A LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
IS W OF THE FRONTS TO 80W. FURTHER E...A 1024 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N32W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 32N11W OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N16W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SLIGHT
RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF
45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
10N BETWEEN 20W-45W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO NEAR 38W WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OUT
OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA






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