[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KILM 312233
HLSILM

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE EARL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010

...LARGE INTENSE HURRICANE EARL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
PENDER...NEW HANOVER.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0N...LONGITUDE 68.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 1010 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NC. EARL WAS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH
WITH 135 MPH WINDS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION.

NCZ097-101-012245-
/O.CON.KILM.TR.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PENDER-NEW HANOVER-
633 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...RIP CURRENTS...
THREE TO FOUR FOOT BREAKING WAVES WITH FIFTEEN SECOND PERIODS FROM
HURRICANE EARL HAVE ALREADY STARTED REACHING THE AREA. BREAKING WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...REACHING NEAR
10 FT THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH THURSDAY. PEOPLE AT THE BEACH ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE
WATER.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 35
PERCENT. THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
AROUND 5 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS ABOUT 170 MILES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE FORECAST TRACK. A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST WOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA. CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED
STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA. MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF
EARL. THE LATEST FORECAST PASSES EARL EAST OF THE AREA...LIMITING
STORM SURGE IMPACTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR COMBINED STORM SURGE AND
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WATERS UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS
ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF
LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. CLOSELY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

$$

AMZ250-012245-
/O.CON.KILM.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
633 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 45
PERCENT. THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
AROUND 10 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. IF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WERE TO OCCUR...THE
MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF ONSET IS THURSDAY MORNING. IF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS WERE TO OCCUR...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF ONSET IS
THURSDAY EVENING.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
HURRICANE EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE
CAPE FEAR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE FORECAST TRACK. A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST WOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL
STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AFFECTING THE WATERS. CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS EARLY
APPROACHES...REACHING 15 FT ON THU.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS
ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE
PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD PLAN TO RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR ON WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN THERE UNTIL EARL PASSES. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

$$

III




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