[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 312343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 31/2100 UTC IS NEAR 22.0N
68.8W...OR ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 940 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE
LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
67W-70W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
19N-26N BETWEEN 65W-71W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 31/2100 UTC IS NEAR 16.7N
57.7W OR ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 21 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 55W-60W...
AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 59W-61W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 16N MOVING W
AT 12 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
12N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 12N16W TO 10N20W...RESUMING WEST
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N34W CONTINUING TO 8N40W 12N45W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND
TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN
15W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 32W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA NEAR 38N80W
PRODUCING E TO SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER LAX THUS WINDS ARE MOSTLY
10-15 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO FROM 23N96W TO 16N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 93W-98W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF E TEXAS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 94W-97W. IN
ADDITION...A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED OVER
W CUBA AND THE SE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND W ATLANTIC.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN
81W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 32N99W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 32N88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS LOW
IS PRODUCING ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT
...CONVECTION TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRESENTLY CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO HURRICANE EARL.
MORE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO
TROPICAL STORM FIONA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
76W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE EARL IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS PRESENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICS...A 1021 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N44W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY E OF
50W N OF 14N. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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