[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W...EQUATOR AT 34W...
4S40W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
3W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 5N BETWEEN 26W-45W AND ALONG THE
BRAZILIAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE POLAR JET STREAM RUNS ZONALLY ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES YET WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS SWD ACROSS
MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN...WITH A WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS TO THE SE UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SURGING S
ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE MORNING AND HAS ALMOST REACHED THE RIO
GRANDE. THE BOUNDARY MAY EASE INTO FAR NORTHERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT
BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ON SAT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED OVER THE REGION AND THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED ON SAT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH ONLY A
FEW WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES. SUBSIDENCE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL...ENHANCED BY
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN BAHAMAS TO THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...THUS THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.
THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADE WINDS REGIME IS UNDER FAIR SKIES
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERY PATCHES HAVE BEEN ROLLING WWD ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE MOIST OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AS A CUT-OFF LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.

ATLANTIC...
A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC
WATERS ALONG 31N43W 29N53W 30N64W 26N78W BUT IS QUICKLY LOSING
ITS IDENTITY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED FROM 30N62W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS PRETTY MUCH
SHUT OFF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WESTERN
END OF THE FRONT HAS DEVELOPED A "SCREAMING EAGLE" SIGNATURE
JUST NE OF ABACO ISLAND AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 74W-76W. FARTHER
S...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 24N67W
AND IS MOVING WWD TOWARDS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE AXIS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
ATLC...BROAD WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS AS FAR S AS 10N EXCEPT FOR A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MADEIRA ISLAND TO 30N25W TO 10N35W. A
LARGE SPRAWLING 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA
NEAR 35N46W WITH NE/E TRADES DOMINATING THE ENTIRE TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL WATERS. A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LIES E OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND A BAND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXTENDS
FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TOWARDS MOROCCO. OTHERWISE...STRONG
WINDS ARE BLOWING OVER THE SAHARAN DESERT AND A THICK PLUME OF
SAND/DUST HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF MAURITANIA...LYING FROM
13N-21N E OF 20W.

$$
BERG




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