[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 3N11W 3N24W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 36W TO 2S46W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM 5W-9W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 19W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE
HAS RETREATED EASTWARD AND NOW COVERS THE E GULF AND CONTINUES
TO GIVE THE GULF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE N GULF BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF
THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE E GULF
THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH AN E/W COMPONENT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH
AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND GIVING THE CARIBBEAN W OF
75W NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKER TRADE WINDS
OVER THE NW PORTION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W FROM 16N
TO THE ABC ISLANDS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE
BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS THE THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO WITH A BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS JAMAICA TO NE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE N/CENTRAL ATLC
WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR
32N43W EXTENDING ALONG 29N49W 27N63W TO OVER THE EASTERN MOST
TURKS AND CAICOS. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W
TROPICAL NE OF TRINIDAD NEAR 12N58W NE TO 32N48W ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 55W-68W. A
SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED IN
THE N/CENTRAL ATLC BY A 1029 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION AND
THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH BERMUDA ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE E THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N21W SW INTO ALONG 21N31W INTO THE
TROPICS TO 13N37W WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS COVERING THE
FAR E ATLC E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO BEYOND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND INLAND OVER W AFRICA. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE FRONT
ACTUALLY BISECTING IT AND A 1028 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE REGION
NEAR 33N29W.

$$
WALLACE




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