[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 35W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-16W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 24W-31W...AND WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING E ACROSS THE SRN U.S.
AND ERN GULF ALONG 86W WITH A 70-90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED
BEHIND IT. THIS JET IS ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE...IN THE FORM
OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE WRN GULF.
BROKEN PATCHES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING OVER THE ERN
WATERS. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE FORWARD PROGRESS OVER SE
TEXAS AND EXTREME NRN MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY NOT TRAVEL MUCH FURTHER S AS IT LACKS SUFFICIENT UPPER
SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE
AREA FROM HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS PATTERN IS
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES DROPS SWD TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT. THIS MAY ALSO
INCREASE SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE WRN WATERS AND THE FLA
STRAITS.

CARIBBEAN...
SW TO WLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH
ONLY A FEW WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SUBSIDENCE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL
...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW PORTION ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN BAHAMAS TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE
MAJORITY OF THE TRADE WINDS REGIME IS UNDER FAIR SKIES EXCEPT
FOR THE ERN WATERS/LESSER ANTILLES AND IN THE VICINITY OF
HISPANIOLA. THESE PATCHES ARE SHALLOW IN NATURE SUPPRESSED BY
THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MOIST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES AS A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SW BAHAMAS.

ATLANTIC...
A DYING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WRN ATLC ALONG 32N42W 30N53W 32N62W 27N73W. THIS
FEATURE HAS BECOME VERY DIFFUSE WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
BUILDING THROUGH IT AND THE FLOW ALOFT NOW NEARLY ZONAL. AN
INTERESTING CLOUD STRUCTURE...KNOWN AS A "SCREAMING EAGLE"...HAS
BROKEN OFF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW BAHAMAS FROM
25N76W TO 30N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...AS
INDICATED BY LIGHTNING DATA...ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS S OF
28N. FARTHER S...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
HISPANIOLA TO 24N68W AND IS MOVING WNW TOWARDS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE AXIS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC LIES TO THE S OF BROAD SFC RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 35N46W. THIS FEATURE IS
MAINTAINING MODERATE NE/E TRADES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER NLY
FLOW NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 15N-22N. ALOFT...BROAD
WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS AS FAR S AS 10N EXCEPT FOR A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM MADEIRA ISLAND TO 30N25W TO 10N34W.  A DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LIES TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH AN
ASSOCIATED BAND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXTENDING FROM THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TOWARDS MOROCCO. OTHERWISE...STRONG WINDS ARE
BLOWING OVER THE SAHARAN DESERT AND A THICK PLUME OF SAND/DUST
HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF MAURITANIA FROM 13N-21N E OF
20W....EASILY SEEN ON EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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