[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 35W TO 2S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-20W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM
23W-29W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 29W-36W AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SWD
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW
GULF WATERS ANALYZED FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO THEN
N TO 24N100W TO 24N103W. RADAR SHOWS A 60 NM WIDE LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF THE FRONT. THE HEAVIEST AND
MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY REMAINS INLAND. W OF THE FRONT N TO NW
WINDS ARE INCREASING AND WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
W GULF. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS W OF THE FRONT OVER THE GULF WITH
CLEARING SKIES NEAR THE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES FROM HAITI
TO PANAMA WITH SLIGHT RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BOTH E AND W
OF THE TROUGH LINE. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE MID-UPPER SYSTEMS KEEPING THE TYPICAL SCATTERED LOW CLOUD
FIELD SHALLOW. AS ALWAYS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE PATCHY AREAS OF CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND S OF HISPANIOLA. TRADE WINDS ARE FAIRLY STRONG...TO
30 KT NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN....
LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 50W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM
32N45W TO 26N60W THEN DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N70W.
A TROUGH HAS BROKE OFF THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY AND IS NOW
MOVING W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS FROM 26N72W TO 22N71W.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERED ARE WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE EASTERN
ATLC NEAR 27N22W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CYCLONE TO
14N24W. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS S OF THE TROUGH WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW PRES
IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N26W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING NWD TO 32N29W.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND TROUGH.

$$
DGS

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