[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N23W 2N35W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 44W TO 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-47W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-27W
AND FROM 2N-5N E OF 14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1003 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER S ARKANSAS TRAILS A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS ANALYZED FROM THE TEXAS/
LOUISIANA BORDER TO CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 30N94W 24N98W AT 21Z.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS NARROW LINES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY REMAINS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS AND
MISSISSIPPI WHERE THE MOST PRONOUNCED AIRMASS CHANGE AND
STRONGEST UPPER WINDS EXIST. W OF THE FRONT...N TO NW WINDS ARE
INCREASING... ALREADY TO 30 KT AT BUOY 42020...AND WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE SHORTLY ACROSS THE W GULF. E OF THE FRONT...STIFF
SE TO S WINDS ARE CREATING A RATHER WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
PATCHY CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POPPING UP
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FLA PANHANDLE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
FRONT CONTINUING SE EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE ENTIRE REGION BY
EARLY WED. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER BY THE TIME IT GETS TO THE SE GULF AS THE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL BE WELL N OF THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WV IMAGES FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO PANAMA WITH SLIGHT RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BOTH E
AND W OF THE TROUGH LINE. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE MID-UPPER SYSTEMS KEEPING THE TYPICAL SCATTERED LOW
CLOUD FIELD SHALLOW. AS ALWAYS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THESE PATCHY AREAS OF CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND FROM 14N-17N E OF 67W. TRADE WINDS
ARE FAIRLY STRONG...TO 30 KT NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT S OF A 1030 MB HIGH OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN....
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 50W IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N48W AND EXTENDS TO 25N66W. A TROUGH HAS
BROKE OFF THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY AND IS NOW PUSHING W
ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS FROM 27N69W TO 21N74W. A WLY JET EXISTS
ALONG 29N BETWEEN 48W AND 70W THEN EXTENDS NE INTO THE N ATLC.
MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM S OF
THE JET...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT AND 240 NM E
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1030 MB HIGH IS WELL IN CONTROL BEHIND THE
FRONT CENTERED NEAR 35N70W. FARTHER E...STRONG HIGH PRES
SITUATED N OF THE AZORES IS INTERRUPTED IN THE SUBTROPICS DUE TO
A 1018 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N25W...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT REVEALED
BY A 2022Z QSCAT PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM NE OF
THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LIES IN A WEAK SFC PRES
PATTERN REGIME AND FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT CREATING A
TRANQUIL ENVIRONMENT.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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