[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 35W TO 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 12W-22W AND WITHIN 150 NM
N OF AXIS FROM 24W-28W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN
40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO
NW GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW
GULF FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 19N95W.
RADAR SHOWS A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
FRONT S OF 27N. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY REMAINS
INLAND. W OF THE FRONT N TO NW WINDS ARE INCREASING TO GALE
FORCE ACROSS THE W GULF. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS W OF THE FRONT OVER
THE GULF WITH CLEARING SKIES NEAR THE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES
FROM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PANAMA WITH SLIGHT RIDGING OR ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT BOTH E AND W OF THE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE MID-UPPER SYSTEMS KEEPING THE TYPICAL
SCATTERED LOW CLOUD FIELD SHALLOW. AS ALWAYS...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE PATCHY AREAS OF CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY E
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND S OF HISPANIOLA. TRADE WINDS ARE
FAIRLY STRONG...TO 30 KT NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN....
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG 45 WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM
32N43W TO 26N58W. N SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N30W TO 25N33W...
DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE COAST OF AFRICA
ALONG 32N29W TO 25N19W...WITH ZONAL FLOW S OF 25N. A 70-85 KT
JETSTREAM FROM 20N60W TO 20N35W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE S OF THE JETSTREAM  IN THE DEEP
TROPICS IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 30N30W TO 18N20W. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

$$
DGS



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