[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 2N30W CROSSES THE EQUATOR AT
40W TO 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 2N25W 2N33W LINE AND FROM
2N TO 5N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 75W...
WESTERLIES ALOFT DOMINATE THE FLOW WITH SATELLITE CLOUD
DRIFT WINDS INDICATING WIND SPEEDS IN THE 70 TO 80 KNOT RANGE. A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N77W ACROSS SE FLORIDA TO THE CUBA COAST AT 82W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED 5 TO 6 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE E TO SE WINDS ARE AS HIGH AS 25
KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST W OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WESTERLIES ALOFT MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...TO 60 KNOTS...LOCATED OVER
THE NW PART. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER S AND ARE IN
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ACROSS E
CUBA TO NEAR 20N82W. EASTERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A JET STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 29N70W TO 30N60W
THROUGH 32N67W. WINDS ARE NEAR 60 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN PART
AND STEADILY INCREASE FURTHER E AND ARE NEAR 100 KNOTS AT
32N67W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
MIDDLE LATITUDES IS LOCATED N OF ABOUT 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
WITH THE AXIS LOCATED ALONG 60W. BROAD RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
31N28W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE CIRCULATION TO 24N31W.
AT THE SURFACE A 1014 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N27W AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE S 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A JET
IS LOCATED FROM 17N42W TO 24N25W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT 27N.
MODERATE WESTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF ABOUT 17N.

$$
CAB



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