[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON MAR 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 2N30W CROSSES THE EQUATOR AT
46W TO 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 1N27W 2S36W 1S47W 3N45W 4N27W TO
1N27W AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLIES ALOFT DOMINATE THE FLOW WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT
WINDS INDICATING WIND SPEEDS IN THE 65 TO 75 KNOT RANGE. A JET
ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF ALONG THE UPPER MEXICAN COAST AT 25N AND
CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH 26N90W AND THEN WEAKENS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NEAR 26N85W. BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
UP TO SIX DEGREES S OF THE JET. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW GULF MONDAY NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KNOTS FORECAST
W OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WESTERLIES ALOFT MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...TO 60 KNOTS...LOCATED OVER
THE NW PART. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER S AND ARE IN
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
HIGHEST SPEEDS...UP TO 30 KNOTS...LOCATED ALONG THE COLOMBIA
COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED 5
TO 6 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A JET STRETCHES
FROM NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 25N77W TO 30N70W TO 29N55W
THROUGH 32N63W. WINDS ARE NEAR 60 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE JET AND STEADILY INCREASE FURTHER E AND ARE NEAR 100 KNOTS
AT 32N63W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE MIDDLE LATITUDES IS LOCATED N OF ABOUT 28N BETWEEN 50W
AND 65W WITH THE AXIS LOCATED ALONG 57W AND MOVING E ABOUT 25
KNOTS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W TO
27N59W AND THEN BECOMES A TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 4 DEGREES E OF THE FRONT N
OF 30N. BROAD RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY N OF 20N
BETWEEN 35W AND 48W. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A SMALL MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 31N27W...NEARLY
STATIONARY. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE CIRCULATION TO
22N30W. AT THE SURFACE A 1014 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N27W AND
IS FORECAST TO MOVE S 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
JET IS LOCATED FROM 16N45W TO 19N30W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT
27N. MODERATE WESTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF ABOUT
16N.

$$
CAB




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