[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W ...ALONG THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 30W-40W TO 3S50W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2S-3N BETWEEN 28W-38W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 41W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 38N76W.  A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  10-15 KT SELY FLOW IS OVER
THE E GULF E OF 90W.  20-25 KT SE FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
SIMILAR CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR SKIES.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W
OF 90W... AND OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO
REMAIN ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN 24 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG
22N77W 19N82W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  20-25 KT NELY SURFACE WINDS AND BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE TROUGH.  MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAVE FRESH
TRADES.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DOTS THE CARIBBEAN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 60W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF
20N.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT N DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL
CUBA ALONG 32N59W 25N70W 22N77W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N43W 25N55W.  A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N28W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  A RIDGE IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 18W-40W.  AN
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N25W.
MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 20N FROM
THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
N OF 25N TO MOVE E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
FORMOSA



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