[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN MAR 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W...ALONG THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 30W-40W TO 2S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N E OF 15W...AND WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 22W-31W. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-5N BETWEEN 43W-53W AFFECTING THE
N COAST OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TAIL END OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE SW
CONUS AND NW MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A BELT OF
WSW WINDS OF 75-90 KNOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE WINDS
ARE DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO AND THE GULF...MAINLY SOUTH OF 25N. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS NE ACROSS FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
TENNESSEE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE N GULF WATERS. AT THE SURFACE A 1025 MB
HIGH LOCATED ALONG THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER IS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF GIVING THE AREA LIGHT TO
MODERATE SE TO S RETURN FLOW. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON
AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
WESTERN CUBA WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS UP TO 50-60 KNOTS. THE
FLOW WEAKENS TO 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT
THE SURFACE A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL
CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH IN CUBA AS WELL AS ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST
OF CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER N BELIZE. AS
USUAL...THE TRADE WINDS ARE CARRYING ON PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. SOME OF THEM ARE
JUST CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES. HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS...NEAR GALE FORCE...ARE FORECAST TO BLOW JUST
OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH MON NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT EXTENDS FROM
THE NW BAHAMAS ALL THE WAY NE BEYOND 32N65W. THIS JET IS ALONG
THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC/NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
IS CLIPPING THE FORECAST AREA W OF 70W. A WEAKENING FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA THEN
CONTINUES SWWD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A 200 NM WIDE BAND OF
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE
TROUGH...BUT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE CONCENTRATED N OF 25N
BETWEEN 60W-70W. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL HAS MOISTURE FROM THIS
TROUGH MOVING N TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS WEER TO THE SE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
GULF. FURTHER EAST...A LARGE WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N26W
AT MIDDLE LEVELS. THIS FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NE. A SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER
SYSTEM AND IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N28W ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP.
A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEFINES THE LOW ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS TO THE NE. A
RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.

$$
GR




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