[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

6N10W 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 28W...2S40W THEN INLAND
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 2S/3S TO 50W. NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BRAZIL COAST/COASTAL WATERS NEAR 1S/2S
TO 1N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN
46W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N10W 5N20W 5N30W 5N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N119W FORTY-EIGHT AGO NOW IS MOVING
FROM EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHERN
INTERIOR MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. FROM
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO TEXAS...AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF 90W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 35N70W TO NORTH CAROLINA TO
GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N60W TO 25N70W...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO 21N80W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM CUBA
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE CENTRAL BELIZE COAST.
IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE CLOUDS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE BROKEN UP/
DISSIPATED. SHOWERS STILL ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY REMAINING AREAS
OF CLOUDS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PREVALENT. THE SURFACE TO LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW IS LARGELY CYCLONIC SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W
AND 84W...MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N27W TO 25N24W 15N40W DISAPPEARING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE TROUGH.
A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 30N27W...
FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO BE STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE ITCZ TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

$$
MT




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