[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

6N10W 3N15W...2N24W...1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W...
TO 2S40W...THEN INLAND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 3N44W.
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN
46W AND 50W JUST OFFSHORE...AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 50W AND
51W IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 7N10W 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N119W FORTY-EIGHT AGO NOW IS MOVING
FROM EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHERN
INTERIOR MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. FROM
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO TEXAS...AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF 90W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 35N70W TO NORTH CAROLINA TO
GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 32N59W TO 27N66W...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS TO 22N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N77W ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 21N80W TO 19N86W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO 14N80W TO THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF
NICARAGUA. SOME OF THE CLOUDS ARE NOT NECESSARILY RELATED TO
THE TROUGH...THEY ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC
FLOW THAT IS IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 17N WEST OF 70W. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 32N56W 27N64W
23N70W 22N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PREVALENT. THE SURFACE TO LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW IS LARGELY CYCLONIC SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W
AND 84W...MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 73W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N27W TO 23N27W 15N40W 13N44W.
A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 28N27W...
FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO MOVE NORTHWARD ABOUT 5 KTS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE ITCZ TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net