[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR
13N67W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FURTHER W ALONG 72W
SOUTH OF 20N IN HAITI TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THIS COMBINED SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SQUALLY WEATHER IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PRESENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 63W-68W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 64W-71W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 19N...
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE
LOW CENTER FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 31W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER S NEAR THE ITCZ FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 26W-34W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 25N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
22N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER
FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 54W-58W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 19N16W 8N40W 11N57W 10N62W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 16W-23W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 49W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
T.D.FAY IS INLAND OVER S MISSISSIPPI DRIFTING SW WITH 22 KT
WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. IN
THE PAST 6 HOURS CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAINS OVER LOUISIANA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 90W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER N FLORIDA AND S
GEORGIA AND S ALABAMA FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 81W-85W DUE TO RAIN
BANDS E OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER SE TEXAS FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN 96W-99W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NE MEXICO...AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 96W-99W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
W CUBA FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN 80W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER N MEXICO NEAR 24N108W. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDS E TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 94W. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA VERY CLOSE TO T.D.FAY AT
30N90W DISRUPTING THE OUTFLOW FROM T.D. FAY S OF 32N BETWEEN
85W-95W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION WITH FAY AND MORE
CONVECTION OVER SE TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE AND SEPARATE LOW CENTER IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
SEA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE FRESH
TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 73W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER E
CUBA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 75W-81W...AND OVER JAMAICA FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-79W. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 81W-87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N83W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. EASTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 17N
AND W OF 70W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM
25N-32N FROM W AFRICA TO 80W DUE TO A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N41W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN WEATHER
PRODUCERS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 23N BETWEEN
60W-80W. AN UPPER HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
23N49W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
30N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N32W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW TO THE
TROPICS NEAR 14N38W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVES AND ITCZ TO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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