[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 221439
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

FAY HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT
HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER PRIMARILY OVER WATER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CONTINUES WELL ESTABLISHED.  BASED ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 40
KNOTS. THE INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL CAUSE FAY TO WEAKEN BUT
BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WATER...FAY COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.

THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT
4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE
ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...FAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND
FAY COULD BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. BY THEN...FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
A REMNANT LOW.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/1500Z 29.6N  82.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 29.7N  83.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  85.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 30.3N  86.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 30.6N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 31.0N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 31.5N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/1200Z 32.5N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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