[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 210300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

FAY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY WHILE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 20 N MI OFF
THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS SHOWN BY NWS WSR-88D
RADAR DATA AND CONFIRMED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE STORM
HAS OCCASIONALLY LOOKED FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND WHAT ESSENTIALLY QUALIFIES AS AN EYE.  WSR-88D
VELOCITIES ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  THE MOST
RECENT COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS SETTLED FOR NOW AT 994 MB.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
FAY IN A FEW HOURS.

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD GET FAY MOVING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY...WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.  BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...SINCE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION.  ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TOMORROW...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE.  A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...AND
SO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK.  ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED
BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS
THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  IF
FAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST...AND SPENDS MORE
TIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD BE AT
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW.
IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/0300Z 28.9N  80.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 29.2N  81.2W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 29.4N  82.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 29.7N  83.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 30.1N  84.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 31.0N  87.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 32.0N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/0000Z 32.5N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



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