[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 210335
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1135 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY NEARLY STATIONARY AND GAINING A SOME
STRENGTH...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS WITHIN
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR BREVARD COUNTY.

TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND
COUNTIES WITHIN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EXCEPT OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...BREVARD...
INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES...SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
BUT A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TOMORROW. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY.

DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR IN MELBOURNE INDICATES
THAT ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS OVER
WATER OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON EARLY THURSDAY
AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER LAND.

FLZ047-054-059-141-147-220345-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
1135 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...EXTREME FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BREVARD COUNTY...
...GROWING RAIN THREAT FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY OVERNIGHT...
...ANOTHER LANDFALL FOR FAY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
GIVEN THAT FAY IS NEARLY STATIONARY...THE FLOOD THREAT FOR
BREVARD COUNTY REMAINS EXTREME. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR BREVARD COUNTY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH
BREVARD. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY AS
RAINBANDS WRAP AROUND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF FAYS
CENTER...FROM DAYTONA BEACH AND ORMOND...TO DELTONA...TO LAKE
HARNEY...AND INTO EASTERN SEMINOLE AND ORANGE COUNTIES...BACK TO
NORTH BREVARD NEAR TITUSVILLE AND COCOA.

FLASH FLOODING AT NIGHT CAN BE VERY VERY DANGEROUS! KEEP YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TURNED ON!

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...
BREVARD...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
AT 1130 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
RAINBANDS WITH HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO ROTATE AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AND INTO
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY. WITH SOME INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN FAYS
EXACT TRACK...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS BAND TO EXPAND
OR EXTEND FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...WHERE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND STANDING WATER PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...EVEN IN ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THE FLOOD
THREAT WILL REMAIN EXTREME UNTIL FAY FULLY COMMITS TO A FORWARD
MOTION AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE LONGER ITS SITS AND SPINS NEARLY
STATIONARY...THE MORE OVERWHELMING THE FLOOD THREAT.

FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH TO ORMOND BEACH...AND TRANSLATE INLAND. AS A
RESULT...TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT IN PARTS OF
VOLUSIA COUNTY TOO.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH AS MUCH AS 30 INCHES FOR LOCAL EVENT
TOTALS...WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED.

THE BREVARD COUNTY FLOODING EVENT IS NO DOUBT HISTORIC FOR THE AREA.
THIS MUCH RAIN HAS NOT OCCURRED LOCALLY SINCE HURRICANE ERIN IN
1995... WHICH IMPACTED MANY OF THE SAME LOCATIONS. DURING
ERIN...TOTALS WERE LOCALLY 9 TO 12 INCHES. THE RAIN WITH FAY HAS
ALREADY DOUBLED THAT OF ERIN! MORE SO...THE AVERAGE MONTHLY RAIN
TOTAL FOR MELBOURNE IS 5.78 INCHES. DURING THIS EVENT ALONE...AT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE...RAIN TOTALS HAVE REACHED
17.87 INCHES SO FAR. EVEN MORE ASTONISHING...IN PARTS OF NORTH
MELBOURNE...NEARLY 25 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

FOR INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES...THE FLOOD THREAT IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. AT 1130 PM EDT...THERE WAS NO HEAVY RAIN IN
THE AREA...WITH LITTLE EXPECT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR TOMORROW WITHIN SOME OUTER RAINBANDS AS FAY
MOVES WEST.

...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...MAINLY IN GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER OF FAY...ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MORNING. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS INDIAN RIVER AND
SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER BUT STILL
GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OF 45 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT IN
SQUALLS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOUTH OF BREVARD COUNTY BY
THURSDAY...BUT NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT FROM BREVARD NORTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE...OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...FROM BREVARD COUNTY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF FAY.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF FAY APPEARS
UNLIKELY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AGAIN...AND THIS TIME IN VOLUSIA
COUNTY.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO SAINT
AUGUSTINE MOVING ONSHORE. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS.
IF A TORNADO DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
HEAVY SURF WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE CAPE. STORM TIDE
WATERS MAY RUN 2 TO 3 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AGAIN
BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON ON THURSDAY...DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE.
STORM SURGE CONCERNS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN VOLUSIA
COAST...WHERE CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS ARE CREATING LONG DURATION
POUNDING SURF. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION REMAINS A CONCERN.

THE EFFECTS OF OF STORM TIDE WATERS WILL BE MINIMAL SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM FAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.


$$

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-220345-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
1135 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
FAY IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS. THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK ONSHORE
BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND NEW SMYRNA BEACH OVERNIGHT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS FAY
SITS AND SPINS OFFSHORE NEW SMYRNA BEACH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WERE BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 41009 WITH NUMEROUS
GUSTS AROUND 45 KNOTS. SEAS ARE OVER 10 FEET EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST
FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD WHERE HEIGHTS WERE 4 TO 6 FEET.
NUMEROUS SQUALLS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO OCCURRING
ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

FLZ041-044>046-053-144-212200-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080821T2200Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-OSCEOLA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-
1135 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...INLAND FLOOD THREAT INCREASING OVERNIGHT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS JUST OFFSHORE NEW SMYRNA BEACH...AND WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY. FAY IS FORECAST TO SIT AND SPIN JUST OFFSHORE
THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST BEFORE HEADING BACK WEST NEAR DAYTONA
BEACH SOMETIME OVERNIGHT. SINCE FAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
LAND...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GREATLY REINTENSIFY AND SHOULD STAY
AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT HAS RECENTLY STRENGTHENED A
LITTLE. FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
FLORIDA THURSDAY.

...WINDS...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TURNS FAY TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE ANOTHER FLORIDA LANDFALL ALONG THE UPPER VOLUSIA COAST
OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE CONTINUE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY.

THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STILL FREQUENTLY
REACH 25 MPH... AND UP TO 50 MPH IN SQUALLS TONIGHT. AS FAY MOVES
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE...40 TO 45 MPH...CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY ACROSS INLAND VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
AT 1130 PM...HEAVY RAIN WAS OCCURRING FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH...
TO DELAND AND DELTONA...TO NEAR SANFORD...TO BITHLO AND CHRISTMAS...
TO COCOA AND THE KENNEDY SPACE CENTER. RAINBANDS WITH HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF FAYS CIRCULATION CENTER. SINCE 8 PM...LOCAL AMOUNT OF 2 TO 4
INCHES HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY RADAR OVER THESE PLACES.

AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
ON THURSDAY.

ON THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BETWEEN LAKE HARNEY AND ASTOR...THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE LATEST STAGE HEIGHTS AT LAKE
HARNEY...SANFORD...DELAND...AND ASTOR ARE ALL BELOW RIVER FLOOD
STAGE. RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER WILL INCREASE NORTH
OF LAKE HARNEY OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE FORECAST STAGE AT ASTOR IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2.5
FEET BY LATE FRIDAY...WHICH IS AT ACTION STAGE. AS A RESULT...AREA
INTERESTS SHOULD WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LONGER TERM RIVER FLOODING AT
ASTOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS IF CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES OVER THE BASIN.

...TORNADOES...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM DAYTONA BEACH
NORTHWARD...AND INLAND TO NEAR SANFORD AND LEESBURG. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS. IF A TORNADO DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD
BE BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$






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