[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 170858
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM
CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH.  A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR
CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EEFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 445
MILES...715 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL CUBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR THE
FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL
CUBA.  ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND
CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. RAINS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER HAITI TODAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...19.7 N...77.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

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