[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 170902
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

THE CENTER OF FAY IS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST OF CUBA TO BE ACCESSIBLE
TO THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SO THERE ARE NO DIRECT
MEASUREMENTS OF CENTRAL PRESSURE OR PRECISE POSITIONING OF THE
SURFACE CENTER.  HOWEVER...CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE AVAILABLE
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT FAY IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE
RIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/11.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE HAS
DECREASED DUE TO A SPREADING OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE VERY DIFFERENT EVOLUTIONS OF THE STEERING FLOW
OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE DIPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF...WHICH TURNS FAY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
BEFORE STALLING IT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE GFDL AND HWRF ALSO
SHOW A PATH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE RIGHT OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
GFS AND UKMET...TURN FAY NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
LATTER SCENARIO AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER
CORE IS IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH RECONNAISSANCE DROPSONDES NEAR THE
CENTER SUGGEST THAT THE PRESSURE HAS NOT YET CHANGED MUCH.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE AND FAY COULD BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA.  IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS FAY NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.  FAY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW DO NOT
EXPLICITLY SHOW IT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/0900Z 19.7N  77.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 20.7N  78.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 22.2N  80.6W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 23.7N  81.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 25.4N  82.1W    60 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 29.0N  82.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 32.0N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     22/0600Z 35.5N  82.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME
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