[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170618
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AT 17/0600 UTC IS NEAR 19.6N
76.8W OR ABOUT 140 MILES/230 KM SOUTH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAMAGUEY CUBA. FAY IS MOVING WEST 12 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA
TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EMERGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FAY MAY
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES/165 KM FROM THE
CENTER. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
HAITI...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN
CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS SPREADING NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...AND ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ON TOP OF THE
BAHAMAS...WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF T.S. FAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N53W TO 15N55W...AND
THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG 55W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 49W AND
51W.

...THE ITCZ...
16N17W 13N28W 10N39W TO 14N52W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N20W 8N25W 7N31W 5N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND FINALLY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. WEAKENING SHOWERS
IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATER WERE RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH.
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FEELING THE
EFFECTS OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 20N82W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS SPREADING NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...AND ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ON TOP OF THE
BAHAMAS...WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF T.S. FAY. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WESTERN CUBA CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR AREAS OF WEAK
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION/TROUGHS SOUTH OF 21N IN MEXICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 30N50W TO 24N53W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W.
THIS TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH OF THE 23N53W 15N55W TROPICAL WAVE.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 32N52W TO
A 27N58W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N59W TO 16N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 30N74W...ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N21W JUST WEST
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SMALLER CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 20N26W
TO ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 17N34W TO 16N43W TO
13N48W.

$$
MT




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