[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 1N30W 5N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 16W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WARM SE SURFACE
RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  SURFACE WINDS ARE
10-15 KT.  FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 93W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW.  ALSO EXPECT A 1020 MB HIGH TO
FORM OVER THE NE GULF BY SAT EVENING WITH LIGHT WARM SURFACE
WINDS AND CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1015 MB LOW IS LOCATED SW OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N69W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 14N75W...AND EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND
PUERTO RICO AT 20N64W.  RADAR IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO SHOWS
STEADY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SIMILAR RAIN WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW AND TROUGH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS THE USUAL TRADEWINDS WITH
STRONGEST VELOCITIES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 82W-84W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... WLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS ARE S OF 14N.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.   EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE SURFACE
TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING
OVER PUERTO RICO AND E HISPANIOLA.  ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS NW OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N69W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG
25N51W 20N64W.  TWO EMBEDDED 1016 MB LOWS ARE ON THE TROUGH AXIS
AT 24N57W AND AT 21N60W.  RAIN IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AND
LOW CENTERS.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E AT 28N40W.  AFRICAN
DUST PERSISTS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC TO 40W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS N OF 10N FROM FLORIDA TO W AFRICA.
A RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EQ30N TO 10N50W.  SLY FLOW
IS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHILE WLY FLOW IS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

$$
FORMOSA


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