[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT APR 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N22W 2N30W EQ40W 2S45W. NO
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200
NM OF THE AXIS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE INLAND OVER S
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
UPPER AXIS ALONG 91W/92W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH THE DRIEST/MOST STABLE AIR OVER THE SE GULF.
SOME PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS CROSSING OVER MEXICO AND
INTO THE W GULF BUT IS DRYING OUT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...DISTANT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS
PRODUCING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER DRIVEN BY E/SE 10-20 KT RETURN
FLOW. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLING OVER THE W GULF AND
BANKED UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE W GULF ASSOCIATED
WITH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE EPAC NEAR 9N90W. MOIST FLOW
AROUND THIS UPPER HIGH IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER COSTA RICA...HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR WITH A STREAK OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR
ALOFT EXISTS W OF 80W N OF 18N AND OVER THE S LEEWARD ISLANDS.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED ESE OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 18N68W. A SFC TROUGH LIES SEWARD OF LOW TO 14N74W AND
NEWARD OF LOW THE INTO THE ATLANTIC.  SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWS AN AREA OF SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER
THE EXTREME N PORTION AND OFF THE N COAST OF THE ISLAND MOVING
EWARD AROUND THE LOW CIRCULATION. THIS AREA OF RAIN THEN MOVES
INTO HISPANIOLA WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LOCAL OROGRAPHY.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...EASTERN U.S.
AND ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED TO THE N OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N65W GENERATING FAIR WEATHER
W OF 60W EXCEPT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE N OF PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE
REGION FROM 30W-60W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE 1016 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 23N57W WITH A TROUGH
DRAPED SEWARD FROM THE LOW INTO A 1015 MB LOW ESE OF PUERTO
RICO. A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF OVERCAST SKIES AND SHOWERS ARE
MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE E OF THE 1016 MB LOW FROM 21N-27N
BETWEEN 45W-58W. AREAS OF RAIN ARE ALSO OCCURRING N OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 60W-70W WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER HISPANIOLA. A 1023 MB
HIGH IS LOCATED 950 NM ENE OF THE 1016 MB LOW NEAR 27N40W.
FARTHER EAST...SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA E OF
30W. AT THE SURFACE...MULTIPLE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE LOCATED
N OF THE AREA OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...NW AFRICA AND PORTUGAL.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS INLAND OVER AFRICA. IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 6N35W WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE TO THE NE OF THE HIGH FROM 3N-16N E OF
36W. SAHARAN DUST REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA STABILIZING THE
LOW-MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG
THE ITCZ AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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