[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311831
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1815 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N10W 4N20W 2N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 35W...2S40W...3S43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 1S TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 21W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4S IN BRAZIL TO 2N BETWEEN
43W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REACHES THE WESTERN
MEXICO COAST...FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE BORDER AREA OF MEXICO
EAST OF 108W INTO TEXAS TOWARD LOUISIANA. THE RIDGE WITH THIS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STARTS OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND
REACHES ITS APEX NEAR NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE MINNESOTA-TO-MISSOURI FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REACHES ITS SOUTHERNMOST POINT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF WATERS...EXCEPT
FOR A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AREA WITH THE BASE
OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N70W TO 32N77W TO EAST
TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 25N87W TO
28N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N42W TO THE AREA OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
GUYANA/SURINAME/FRENCH GUIANA TO VENEZUELA..COLOMBIA...PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 12N.
A JETSTREAM IS FOUND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N60W
13N70W 12N80W. THE 31/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
DATA SHOW THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE RANGING FROM 50 KT TO 65 KT
WITHIN THIS AREA OF WIND. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD...SOUTH OF THE LINE 17N60W 15N70W 13N80W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N59W AND A
TRAILING TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 20N64W...PUERTO RICO...AND
15N72W CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE AREA SURROUNDED
BY THE POINTS 23N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...15N72W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...21N67W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...23N58W. THIS AREA COVERS PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF 70W. IT IS EASILY
POSSIBLE THAT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A TROUGH CONNECTING ONE SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 24N58W...TO
A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 22N60W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO
A THIRD LOW CENTER NEAR 18N69W...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO
16N70W AND 15N74W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT REACHES 31N38W.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN AT LEAST 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 24N58W 27N48W 29N41W BEYOND 30N30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
IN THIS CLOUDINESS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT OTHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THIS CLOUDINESS.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 32N12W 27N31W 24N54W.
THIS FLOW IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF BROADER AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS AND TROUGHS WHICH ARE
NORTH OF THE AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS 32N12W
24N54W LINE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS WESTERN
AFRICA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 8N TO 30N BETWEEN
4W AND 17W.

$$
MT

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