[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N30W 3S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS JUST NORTH OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 39W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF...WHILE MAINLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS
NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
COVERING THE WHOLE AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N70W WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING SWARD INTO FLORIDA AND THE GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG SE
RETURN FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA...POOLING SOME MOISTURE
ACROSS THE N GULF STATES AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN
MEXICO JUST NORTH OF TAMPICO. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WARM SELY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC
ACROSS VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 12N. A JETSTREAM WITH E
PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO PUERTO RICO INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW AND
SE CORNERS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE
VENEZUELA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1015 MB LOW IS LOCATED NE OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N62W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG
19N65W 16N680W. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS STILL SHOWING A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH ALONG
THE MONA PASSAGE. OTHER SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA HAS THE USUAL TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST VELOCITIES AROUND 20
KT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON
THE PACIFIC SIDE OF PANAMA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PUERTO RICO AND
PARTS OF HISPANIOLA. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND COSTA RICA/PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH TWO LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS IN BETWEEN...ONE LOCATED NE OF PUERTO
RICO...THE OTHER ONE IS NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 34N67W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NE OF PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 23N56W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE
NEAR AND EAST OF THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N FROM FLORIDA TO W AFRICA. A RIDGE
IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER WEST AFRICA NEAR 16N11W. SUBTROPICAL
JET IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC AND SOUTH AMERICA
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.

$$
GR




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