[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N30W 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 11W-20W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NE BRAZIL AND` THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FROM 6S-1N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MODERATE TO STRONG SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF THANKS
TO A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A PATCH
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF WHILE A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN
88W-90W.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM MEXICO BY FRIDAY EVENING. WARM SELY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1014 MB LOW IS LOCATED NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N63W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 18N65W 16N70W.  THE
SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
TSTMS JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH ALONG THE MONA PASSAGE. OTHER
SHOWERS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE NW QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS THE USUAL TRADEWINDS WITH
STRONGEST VELOCITIES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER W PANAMA/E COSTA RICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
81W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  A JETSTREAM WITH E PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM
COSTA RICA TO HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW AND SE CORNERS OF THE BASIN...
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND N VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING
OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N63W 28N70W
28N77W. A THIN BAND OF LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
A 1022 MB IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N55W. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ESE TOWARD THE E ATLC. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N24W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 21.5N40W.  A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NE OF PUERTO RICO  TO NEAR
22N56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS N
OF 20N FROM FLORIDA TO W AFRICA. A RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC S OF 20N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
IS OVER WEST AFRICA NEAR 15N11W. SUBTROPICAL JET IS TRANSPORTING
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC  AND SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.

$$
GR



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