[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 1N30W 3S45W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 14W-18W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 18W-21W...AND
FROM 3S-1N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WARM SE SURFACE
RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF LOUISIANA FROM
27N-29N BETWEEN 88W-91W.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW IS NOTED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM MEXICO BY FRIDAY
EVENING.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED WARM SELY SURFACE FLOW FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1014 MB LOW IS LOCATED NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N63W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO BEYOND PUERTO RICO ALONG 18N66W
17N70W.  RADAR IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO SHOWS STEADY RAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS THE USUAL TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST
VELOCITIES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER E PANAMA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 76W-78W...AND OVER W PANAMA
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SW FLOW
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A JETSTREAM WITH E PACIFIC
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO WELL BEYOND HISPANIOLA.  IN
CONTRAST THE YUCATAN AND NW CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS...TRINIDAD
AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA.  ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N FLORIDA ALONG
32N61W 29N70W 28N77W 30N82W.  A THIN BAND OF LOW CLOUDS DEPICTS
THE FRONT.  A 1022 MB IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
29N55W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N23W 26N30W 22N40W 20N50W.  A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO THE LOW NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N63W.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
180 NM OF THE FRONTS.  AFRICAN DUST IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E
ATLANTIC TO 40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N
FROM FLORIDA TO W AFRICA.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
S OF 20N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EQ30N
TO 10N60W.  SLY FLOW IS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHILE WLY FLOW IS N
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

$$
FORMOSA


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